A Proposed Set of Operating Models for Canadian Pollock in the Western Component (4Xopqrs+5Zc) to be used in Management Procedure Testing (or MSE)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A key feature that distinguishes the Management Procedure Approach (also termed Management Strategy Evaluation or MSE) from conventional “best assessments” is the importance of selecting not the (“best”) one assessment, but rather of ensuring that future resource trends will be satisfactory no matter which of a number plausible assessments most closely reflects the actual (but unknown) underlying situation of the resource. Frequent convention is to select a small number of such “Operating Models” (OMs), spanning the most important aspects of uncertainty in the assessment, for use as a Reference Set (RS) which provides the initial basis to develop and to tune a Management Procedure (MP). This paper develops a suggested set of four VPA-based OMs to provide a RS to serve as a basis for subsequent testing of candidate MPs. Two Statistical Catch-at-Age (SCAA) models are also developed to provide robustness tests for MPs developed using the VPA-based RS.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".