Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a general-purpose methodology for recursive Bayesian inference, and is widely used in state space modeling and probabilistic programming. Its resample-move variant reduces the variance of posterior estimates by interleaving Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) steps for particle “rejuvenation”; but this requires accessing all past observations and leads to linearly growing memory size and quadratic computation cost. Under the assumption of exchangeability, we introduce sequential core-set Monte Carlo (SCMC), which achieves constant space and linear time by rejuvenating based on sparse, weighted subsets of past data. In contrast to earlier approaches, which uniformly subsample or throw away observations, SCMC uses a novel online version of a state-of-the-art Bayesian core-set algorithm to incrementally construct a nonparametric, data- and model-dependent variational representation of the unnormalized target density. Experiments demonstrate significantly reduced approximation errors at negligible additional cost.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".