CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Projections of extreme event metrics and threshold exceedances are produced by analyzing the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 Localized Constructed Analogs (CMIP6-LOCA2) data set. The primary daily temperature and precipitation data are summarized to 36 annual metrics and 4 monthly metrics. This data set includes output from 27 GCMs for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States with partial coverage in Mexico and Canada. To support climate research within and outside the Department of Interior these data are distributed in a variety of formats: individual model grids for all years, gridded climatologies (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and Global Warming Levels +1.5 °C, +2.0 °C, +3.0 °C), and time series spatially averaged to United States county and watershed boundaries (HUC8 from the Watershed Boundary Dataset). Ensemble averages are provided for the Weighted Multi-Model Mean (WMMM) and Multi-Model Mean (MMM) where appropriate. Many of the threshold exceedance variables stem from the Climdex project (https://www.climdex.org), which predominately uses metric units. Additional English-based thresholds were included to support Department of Interior research. There are 72 simulations in total (ssp245=24, ssp370=23, ssp585=25). While the CMIP6-LOCA2 data set supports multiple realizations per model; one realization per model is provided herein (predominately r1i1p1f1, except when this realization was not available). Users interested in the source downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the data set home page: https://loca.ucsd.edu. The 27 included GCMs are: ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1 The 40 included variables are: variable name units frequency CDD Consecutive Dry Days days annual CWD Consecutive Wet Days days annual DTR Daily temperature range °C annual FD Frost Days days annual GDD10 Growing degree days, base 10 °C °C d annual GDD5 Growing degree days, base 5 °C °C d annual GSL Growing season length days annual ID Ice Days days annual PRCPTOT Annual total wet-day PR mm annual R10mm Number of heavy rain days days annual R1in Annual days with total precipitation > 1 inch days annual R1mm Number of rain days days annual R20mm Number of very heavy rain days days annual R2in Annual days with total precipitation > 2 inch days annual R3in Annual days with total precipitation > 3 inch days annual R40mm Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 40mm days annual R95p Annual total PRCP when RR > 95th percentile mm annual R95pDAYS Days when RR > 95th percentile days annual R95pTOT Contribution to total precipitation from very wet days % annual R99p Annual total PRCP when RR > 99th percentile mm annual R99pDAYS Days when RR > 99th percentile days annual R99pTOT Contribution to total precipitation from extremely wet days % annual Rx1day Maximum 1-day precipitation mm annual Rx5day Maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation mm annual SDII Daily PR intensity mm/day annual SU Summer days days annual TNn Minimum value of daily minimum temperature °C monthly TNx Maximum value of daily minimum temperature °C monthly TR Tropical nights days annual TX90p Percentage of days when TX > 90th percentile % annual TX90pDAYS Number of days when TX > 90th percentile days annual TX95p Percentage of days when TX > 95th percentile % annual TX95pDAYS Number of days when TX > 95th percentile days annual TXge100F TX of greater than or equal to 100 °F days annual TXge105F TX of greater than or equal to 105 °F days annual TXge110F TX of greater than or equal to 110 °F days annual TXge90F TX of greater than or equal to 90 °F days annual TXge95F TX of greater than or equal to 95 °F days annual TXn Minimum value of daily maximum temperature °C monthly TXx Maximum value of daily maximum temperature °C monthly
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".