Investigating historical drivers of latitudinal gradients in polyploid plant biogeography: A multi-clade perspective
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Premise of the Study The proportion of polyploid plants in a community increases with latitude, and different hypotheses have been proposed about which factors drive this pattern. Here, we aim to understand the historical causes of the latitudinal polyploidy gradient using a combination of ancestral state reconstruction methods. Specifically, we assess whether (1) polyploidization enables movement to higher latitudes (i.e., polyploidization precedes occurrences in higher latitudes) or (2) higher latitudes facilitate polyploidization (i.e., occurrence in higher latitudes precedes polyploidization). Methods We reconstruct the ploidy states and ancestral niches of 1,032 angiosperm species at four paleoclimatic time slices ranging from 3.3 million years ago to the present, comprising taxa from four well-represented clades: Onagraceae, Primulaceae, Solanum (Solanaceae), and Pooideae (Poaceae). We use ancestral niche reconstruction models alongside a customized discrete character evolution model to allow reconstruction of states at specific time slices. Patterns of latitudinal movement are reconstructed and compared in relation to inferred ploidy shifts. Key Results We find that no single hypothesis applies equally well across all analyzed clades. While significant differences in median latitudinal occurrence were detected in the largest clade, Poaceae, no significant differences were detected in latitudinal movement in any clade. Conclusions Our preliminary study is the first to attempt to connect ploidy changes to continuous latitudinal movement, but we cannot favor one hypothesis over another. Given that patterns seem to be clade-specific, a larger number of clades must be analyzed in future studies for generalities to be drawn.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it