Pan-Arctic 93-day sea ice concentration forecasts from the IceNet model and mappings between sea ice concentration and Dolphin and Union caribou sea ice crossing-start times
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This dataset contains four types of data: i) IceNet's 93-day pan-Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts, initialised each day between 26th July - 12th December for the years 2020-2022 inclusive (140 forecasts per year), ii) neural network weights for the IceNet model used to generate the forecasts, iii) a Shapefile for the coastline of Victoria Island (Nunavut, Canada), which was used to estimate caribou sea ice crossing-start times, and iv) CSV files with results linking sea ice concentration values to caribou sea ice crossing-start times. This data was used to explore if and how sea ice forecasts from the IceNet model could give early-warning of Dolphin and Union caribou migration times from Victoria Island to the mainland, by predicting key sea ice concentration thresholds. This work was supported under the WWF-UK Arctic IceNet grant (project number GB085600), the EPSRC Grant EP/Y028880/1 and the Environment and Sustainability Grand Challenge at the Alan Turing Institute.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.012 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".