Chapter 9 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 9.22 (v20230206)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Data for Figure 9.22 from Chapter 9 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Figure 9.22 shows simulated versus observed permafrost extent and volume change by warming level. --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Fox-Kemper, B., H.T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S.S. Drijfhout, T.L. Edwards, N.R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R.E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I.S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, A.B.A. Slangen, and Y. Yu, 2021: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1211–1362, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011. --------------------------------------------------- Figure subpanels --------------------------------------------------- The figure has 2 subpanels, with data provided for both panels in one central directory. --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- This dataset contains: - (a) Diagnosed Northern Hemisphere permafrost extent (area with perennially frozen ground at 15 m depth, or at the deepest model soil level if this is above 15 m) for 1979–1998, for available CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, from the first ensemble member of the historical coupled run, and for CMIP6 AMIP (atmosphere+land surface, prescribed ocean) and land-hist (land only, prescribed atmospheric forcing) runs. - (b) Simulated global permafrost volume change between the surface and 3 m depth as a function of the simulated global surface air temperature (GSAT) change, from the first ensemble members of a selection of scenarios, for available CMIP6 models. Estimates of current permafrost extents based on physical evidence and reanalyses are indicated as black symbols – triangle: Obu et al. (2018); star: Zhang et al. (1999); circle: central value and associated range from Gruber (2012). Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 9.SM.9) --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to Figure 9.22 - Data file: pf15m_CMIP5historical_NH_1979-1998.txt - Data file: pf15m_amip_NH_1979-1998.txt - Data file: pf15m_historical_NH_1979-1998.txt - Data file: pf15m_land-hist_NH_1979-1998.txt - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-CM2_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-CM2_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-CM2_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-CM2_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-ESM1-5_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-ESM1-5_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-ESM1-5_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_ACCESS-ESM1-5_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_BCC-CSM2-MR_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_BCC-CSM2-MR_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_BCC-CSM2-MR_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_BCC-CSM2-MR_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CAMS-CSM1-0_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CAMS-CSM1-0_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CAMS-CSM1-0_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CAMS-CSM1-0_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2-WACCM_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2-WACCM_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2-WACCM_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2-WACCM_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CESM2_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1-HR_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1-HR_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1-HR_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1-HR_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-CM6-1_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-ESM2-1_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-ESM2-1_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-ESM2-1_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CNRM-ESM2-1_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5-CanOE_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5-CanOE_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5-CanOE_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5-CanOE_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_CanESM5_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_EC-Earth3_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_EC-Earth3_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_EC-Earth3_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_EC-Earth3_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_FGOALS-g3_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_FGOALS-g3_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_FGOALS-g3_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_FGOALS-g3_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_GFDL-CM4_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_GFDL-CM4_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_GFDL-ESM4_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_GFDL-ESM4_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_GFDL-ESM4_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_GFDL-ESM4_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_GISS-E2-1-G_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_GISS-E2-1-G_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_GISS-E2-1-G_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_GISS-E2-1-G_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_HadGEM3-GC31-LL_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_HadGEM3-GC31-LL_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_HadGEM3-GC31-LL_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_IPSL-CM6A-LR_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_IPSL-CM6A-LR_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_IPSL-CM6A-LR_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_IPSL-CM6A-LR_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_KACE-1-0-G_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_KACE-1-0-G_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_KACE-1-0-G_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_KACE-1-0-G_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC-ES2L_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC-ES2L_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC-ES2L_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC-ES2L_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC6_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC6_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC6_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_MIROC6_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_MRI-ESM2-0_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_MRI-ESM2-0_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_MRI-ESM2-0_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_MRI-ESM2-0_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-LM_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-LM_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-LM_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-LM_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-MM_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-MM_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-MM_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_NorESM2-MM_historical_ssp585.nc - Data file: pfv_UKESM1-0-LL_historical_ssp126.nc - Data file: pfv_UKESM1-0-LL_historical_ssp245.nc - Data file: pfv_UKESM1-0-LL_historical_ssp370.nc - Data file: pfv_UKESM1-0-LL_historical_ssp585.nc In the GitHub repository the filenames differ from that listed above, the final underscore is replaced with a '+'. For example, ' pfv_ACCESS-CM2_historical_ssp126.nc' in the repository is called ' pfv_ACCESS-CM2_historical+ssp126.nc' CMIP5 is the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. CMIP6 is the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. AMIP is the Atmospheric Modelling Intercomparison Project. GSAT stands for Global Surface Air Temperature. ACCESS-CM2 is the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled climate model. ACCESS-ESM1-5 is the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Earth system model version designed to participate in CMIP6 simulations. BCC-CSM2-MR is one of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Models designed for use in CMIP6 simulations. CAMS-CSM1-0 is the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model version 1. CESM is the Community Earth System Model. CESM2-WACCM is the Community System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. CNRM-CM6-1 is the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model for CMIP6. CNRM-CM6-1-HR is the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model for CMIP6 - altered Horizontal Resolution. CNRM-ESM2-1 is the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Earth System Model, derived from CNRM-CM6-1. CanESM5 is the Canadian Earth System Model version 5. CanESM5-CanOE is the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 - Canadian Ocean Ecosystem. EC-Earth3 is the European Community Earth-system model version 3. FGOALS-g3 is the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Grid-point Version 3 GFDL-ESM4 is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.014 | 0.024 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".