What drives the trend of the QBO wind amplitude?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<!--!introduction!--><b></b> The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and is known to impact the Earth system via stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Past studies have suggested a weakening amplitude of the zonal wind QBO in the tropical lower stratosphere possibly related to increasing tropical upwelling. Here we use radiosonde observations and reanalyses to revisit the mystery of the QBO wind amplitude changes. In the lower stratosphere decadal variations dominate over a long-term climate change related trend. We show that the observed variations in the QBO amplitude over recent decades can be explained in large parts by the seasonal alignment of the QBO phase and variations in stratospheric circulation anomalies. In consequence wind tendencies at the onset of the QBO phase can be used to reconstruct the amplitude occurring months later. Furthermore, a newly identified connection between the QBO amplitude and the long-term change in water vapor is presented. Based on the observed response of the QBO amplitude to the different dynamical factors, we discuss implications for future QBO trends in a changing climate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".