Manipulating State Failure: Al-Shabaab's Consolidation of Power in Somalia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This thesis addresses the question: How has Al-Shabaab’s position of power across large swaths of Somalia challenged assumptions about the organizational capacities of terrorist organizations within the context of state failure? At its core, this question is composed of four parts: an assessment of the power maintained by Al-Shabaab; an evaluation of the assumptions made about the operational abilities of such groups; an understanding how organizational capacity can be measured; and an assessment of state failure’s relationship to informal institutions and non-state actors. This research noted a significant shift in the capabilities of non-state actors attempting to consolidate power in Somalia as social and political contexts evolved over time. Such dramatic shifts exposed the specific circumstances necessary for the development of conditions that allowed for organizations, such as Al-Shabaab, to accumulate domestic power and authority, while extending their reach regionally.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.009 | 0.016 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".