Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species’ range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the wellbeing of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon-environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns-per-spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock-recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in mainstem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well-documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it