Trade liberalisation in Mexico and its impact on exports, imports and the balance of payments
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The aim of this thesis is to disentangle the effects of trade liberalisation during the mid1980s from the trade liberalisation involved in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on exports, imports and the balance of payments in Mexico, at the aggregate and disaggregated level. The main empirical results suggest that the trade reforms during the mid-1980s had a significant impact on trade, exports and imports; however, the effects of NAFTA are negligible. In spite of the fast rate of manufacturing exports, the most dynamic sector, imports have increased even faster. Therefore, trade liberalisation has worsened the trade balance. In addition to this, the evidence presented in this thesis shows that more liberalised trade has not contributed to an improved economic performance in Mexico, as promised a decade ago, before NAFTA came into effect, by the leaders of Canada, Mexico and the US. However, NAFTA has locked-in Mexico's trade and foreign investment policy, easing the access of multinational firms to the country but with minimum forward and backward linkages to the domestic economy. It is corroborated that Mexico's economic performance is constrained by the external sector and trade liberalisation has contributed to reinforcing the dependence of domestic industry on imports.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it