Mid to late-Holocene sea-surface temperature variability off north-eastern Newfoundland and its linkage to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In recent decades the surface water temperature and salinity in the Labrador Sea have been influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as well as a trend to increasingly warm atmospheric temperatures in recent years. These changes are concerning, given the important role that temperature and salinity have on deep convection in the Labrador Sea. Yet, due to the shortness of available records, the long-term patterns of climate variability in the region are not clear. Here, a diatom-based reconstruction of summer sea-surface temperature (SST) developed from Trinity Bay, Newfoundland, provides insight into variations of SST since 7.2 cal ka BP in the southwestern Labrador Sea. The results show that the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) lasted until c. 5.2 cal ka BP, which was followed by a gradual cooling trend overprinted by centennial temperature fluctuations of 1–2°C. Long-term cooling was likely the result of declining Northern Hemisphere orbital summer insolation, potentially amplified by long-term changes in surface and bottom water salinity, which led to a gradual reduction in the stratification of the water column. Centennial fluctuations in temperature vary in-phase with reconstructed variations in the NAO, supporting a consistent relationship between atmospheric circulation and SST over centennial-millennial timescales. Other factors influencing the SST variability may have been solar forcing during the mid-Holocene and variations in the strength of the subpolar gyre during the late-Holocene. The most prolonged cool period at 5.2–4.1 cal ka BP coincides with sharply reduced salinity in the Labrador Sea and a weakening of deep ventilation in the northeast Atlantic, highlighting a period with altered ocean surface conditions and circulation across the northern North Atlantic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".