Opposite Trends in the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere Between Mid-Winter and Early Spring Linked to Surface Temperature Anomalies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Trends in the coupled stratosphere-troposphere system during the 1979–2022 period are investigated in the Northern Hemisphere using reanalysis datasets. More upward planetary wave propagation in December is shown to precede the deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in January. This deceleration prevents the waves from continuing to propagate upward in February and favors an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in March. This is associated with an increased Northern Hemisphere annular mode in March in the stratosphere and the troposphere. Trends show a moderate significance level because of strong interannual variability. Recent seasons whose anomalies project onto the trends are those for which wave-1 anomaly constructively interferes with wave-1 climatology in December, which occurs when there is warming in an area extending from Eastern Canada to Greenland and slight cooling over Eurasia. It shows the potential for predicting the springtime stratospheric polar vortex from wintertime wave-1 anomalies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".