Observation of the A Carinid Meteor Shower 2020 Unexpected Outburst
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present observations of the sudden outburst of the A Carinid meteor shower recorded with the Southern Argentina Agile MEteor Radar Orbital System (SAAMER-OS) near the south toroidal sporadic region. The outburst peaked between 21 UT and 22 UT on 2020 October 14 and lasted 7 days (199° ≤ λ⊙ ≤ 205°), with a mean Sun-centered geocentric ecliptic radiant of λg − λ⊙ = 271fdg04, βg = −76fdg4, and a geocentric speed of 33.3 km s−1. Assuming a mass index value of s = 2.0, we compute a peak 24 hr average flux of 0.029 meteoroids km−2 hr−1 to a limit of 9th magnitude, which is equivalent to a zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) of 5.7 and comparable to other established showers with similar mass indices. By further estimating the peak fluxes for other typical mass index values, we find that the outburst likely never exceeded a maximum ZHR of ∼44, well below the activity of other strong showers. The mean orbital elements resemble those of a short-period object, a = 3.5 ± 0.1 au, q ≃ 1 au, e = 0.72 ± 0.02, i = 55fdg8 ± 0fdg3, ω = 1° ± 173°, and Ω = 21fdg7, and are similar to those derived for two previous shower outbursts observed with SAAMER-OS at high southern ecliptic latitudes. Using the criterion did not reveal a parent object associated with this shower in the known object catalogs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".