Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Mont-Tremblant National Park, Québec under differing levels of warming
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mont Tremblant National Park is among the top 5% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. The park is largely projected to be resilient to climate change, even at 4°C. Averaged over the entire area of this park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 81.8% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 97.3% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 100% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 93.5% of its terrestrial biodiversity. Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.2° - 2.0°C (December). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990, except for June – August having a new average temperature equivalent to that experienced 1 in 20 years. Four months have seen decreases in precipitation with the rest seeing increases. Models project that all months will become wetter except August. The number of months classified as being in severe drought have substantially decreased between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015, while the number of months classified as being waterlogged has nearly doubled. Under the climate change scenarios examined the number of months in severe drought are projected to increase. The number of months in a waterlogged state are also projected to increase. Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation taking into account changes in extreme events.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it