The Impact of New US Tariffs in 2025: Towards a Global Economic Collapse?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The year 2025 signifies a pivotal juncture in the evolution of US trade policy, marked by the implementation of substantial tariffs not only on China, but also on established trading partners such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This opinion piece undertakes an assessment of the prospective economic and geopolitical ramifications of the introduction of these protectionist measures. The analysis posits that the implementation of these tariffs could lead to an escalation in the fragmentation of global trade, resulting in the intensification of inflationary pressures and the potential triggering of a global recession. The article explores the implications for US economic stability, potential retaliatory actions by affected countries and the reconfiguration of global trade alliances. In addition, it discusses alternative strategies that could mitigate the negative results, including promoting multilateral trade agreements, investing in technological advances and diversifying export markets. In conclusion, it highlights the risks of escalating trade wars and emphasises the need for international cooperation to avoid long-term economic instability. Keywords: Trade tariffs; Economic protectionism; Trade war; Impacts of trade policy; Fragmentation of international trade; Slowdown in economic growth
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".