Natural History of Progression of HPV Infection to Cervical Lesion or Clearance: Analysis of the Control Arm of the Large, Randomised PATRICIA Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The control arm of PATRICIA (PApilloma TRIal against Cancer In young Adults, NCT00122681) was used to investigate the risk of progression from cervical HPV infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or clearance of infection, and associated determinants.Women aged 15-25 years were enrolled. A 6-month persistent HPV infection (6MPI) was defined as detection of the same HPV type at two consecutive evaluations over 6 months and clearance as ≥2 type-specific HPV negative samples taken at two consecutive intervals of approximately 6 months following a positive sample. The primary endpoint was CIN grade 2 or greater (CIN2+) associated with the same HPV type as a 6MPI. Secondary endpoints were CIN1+/CIN3+ associated with the same HPV type as a 6MPI; CIN1+/CIN2+/CIN3+ associated with an infection of any duration; and clearance of infection. The analyses included 4825 women with 16,785 infections (3363 women with 6902 6MPIs). Risk of developing a CIN1+/CIN2+/CIN3+ associated with same HPV type as a 6MPI varied with HPV type and was significantly higher for oncogenic versus non-oncogenic types. Hazard ratios for development of CIN2+ were 10.44 (95% CI: 6.96-15.65), 9.65 (5.97-15.60), 5.68 (3.50-9.21), 5.38 (2.87-10.06) and 3.87 (2.38-6.30) for HPV-16, HPV-33, HPV-31, HPV-45 and HPV-18, respectively. HPV-16 or HPV-33 6MPIs had ~25-fold higher risk for progression to CIN3+. Previous or concomitant HPV infection or CIN1+ associated with a different HPV type increased risk. Of the different oncogenic HPV types, HPV-16 and HPV-31 infections were least likely to clear.Cervical infections with oncogenic HPV types increased the risk of CIN2+ and CIN3+. Previous or concomitant infection or CIN1+ also increased the risk. HPV-16 and HPV-33 have by far the highest risk of progression to CIN3+, and HPV-16 and HPV-31 have the lowest chance of clearance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".