A reduced proteomic signature in critically ill Covid-19 patients determined with plasma antibody micro-array and machine learning
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background COVID-19 is a complex, multi-system disease with varying severity and symptoms. Identifying changes in critically ill COVID-19 patients’ proteomes enables a better understanding of markers associated with susceptibility, symptoms, and treatment. We performed plasma antibody microarray and machine learning analyses to identify novel proteins of COVID-19. Methods A case-control study comparing the concentration of 2000 plasma proteins in age- and sex-matched COVID-19 inpatients, non-COVID-19 sepsis controls, and healthy control subjects. Machine learning was used to identify a unique proteome signature in COVID-19 patients. Protein expression was correlated with clinically relevant variables and analyzed for temporal changes over hospitalization days 1, 3, 7, and 10. Expert-curated protein expression information was analyzed with Natural language processing (NLP) to determine organ- and cell-specific expression. Results Machine learning identified a 28-protein model that accurately differentiated COVID-19 patients from ICU non-COVID-19 patients (accuracy = 0.89, AUC = 1.00, F1 = 0.89) and healthy controls (accuracy = 0.89, AUC = 1.00, F1 = 0.88). An optimal nine-protein model (PF4V1, NUCB1, CrkL, SerpinD1, Fen1, GATA-4, ProSAAS, PARK7, and NET1) maintained high classification ability. Specific proteins correlated with hemoglobin, coagulation factors, hypertension, and high-flow nasal cannula intervention (P < 0.01). Time-course analysis of the 28 leading proteins demonstrated no significant temporal changes within the COVID-19 cohort. NLP analysis identified multi-system expression of the key proteins, with the digestive and nervous systems being the leading systems. Conclusions The plasma proteome of critically ill COVID-19 patients was distinguishable from that of non-COVID-19 sepsis controls and healthy control subjects. The leading 28 proteins and their subset of 9 proteins yielded accurate classification models and are expressed in multiple organ systems. The identified COVID-19 proteomic signature helps elucidate COVID-19 pathophysiology and may guide future COVID-19 treatment development.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.056 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it