Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Breakup Ice Jam Occurrence at Fort McMurray, Alberta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
River ice jams are commonly observed on the Athabasca River in the vicinity of Fort McMurray, Alberta. These natural events have been responsible for serious flood damages at the city of Fort McMurray. No method is currently in use to predict the occurrence or severity of ice jams at this site. A meteorological and hydraulic database was compiled in this research in order to investigate which factors influence the nature and rate of river ice breakup at Fort McMurray. These factors were first studied separately with simple threshold models. The results demonstrated that ice jams formation at Fort McMurray is very complex since none of the factors investigated individually provided any information on the occurrence of ice jams at the studied site. Linear and multiple linear regression models were also studied. Promising results were obtained when multiple factors were used to predict breakup flood levels.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".