Supplementary material from "Persistent positive anomalies in geopotential heights drive enhanced wildfire activity across Europe"
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Persistent positive anomalies in 500 hPa geopotential height (PPAs) are upper-air circulation patterns associated with surface heatwaves, drought, and fuel aridity. We examined the association between PPA events and surface fire weather and burned area at a pan-European level. Europe-wide, extreme fire weather and wildfires were on average 3.5 and 2.3 times more likely to occur concurrently with a PPA, respectively. PPAs were associated with 45% of pan-European area burned between March and October 2001–2021, and there was a latitudinal increase in the percentage of area burned during or up to seven days following PPAs up to 63% over Northern Europe. Burned area was highest up to one week following PPA presence, and fuel moisture indices from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System lagged behind peak PPA strength, demonstrating the role of PPAs in pre-drying fuels. Our findings highlight opportunities for developing early warning systems of wildfire danger, having implications for wildfire awareness and preparedness, informing policy, and wildfire management decisions like early mobilisation and resource sharing initiatives across Europe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.756 | 0.262 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".