Epidemic curves and mobility change stratified by neighborhood-level income and essential worker quintiles in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada (February 23, 2020 to December 13, 2020).
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<p>Panel A and B describe weekly new lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases (excluding residents of long-term care homes) by neighborhood-level income quintile (Panel A) and proportion of the working population engaged in essential services (Panel B). Panel C and D depict the weekly crude mobility metric by neighborhood-level income quintile (Panel C) and proportion essential workers (Panel D). The horizontal dashed lines in Panel C and D represent 2019 mobility as pre-pandemic mobility reference, while the solid lines represent 2020 mobility data. The vertical dashed lines depict the two COVID-19 restriction policies under examination: the first restriction enacted March 17, 2020 across all five public health units (Toronto, Peel, Halton, York, and Durham) in the Greater Toronto Area; and the second restriction enacted November 23, 2020 in Toronto and Peel public health units within the Greater Toronto Area. Income reflects the per-person equivalent income in the household. Essential services include: trades, transport, and equipment operation; sales and services; manufacturing and utilities; and resources, agriculture, and production. Neighborhood level is defined at the level of the census tract. Quintiles are weighted by neighborhood-level population.</p>
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".