Spatial-temporal trends in the risk of illicit drug toxicity death in British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Illicit drug poisoning (overdose) continues to be an important public health problem with overdose-related deaths currently recorded at an unprecedented level. Understanding the geographic variations in fatal overdose mortality is necessary to avoid disproportionate risk resulting from service access inequity. Methods: We estimated the odds of fatal overdose per event from all cases captured by the overdose surveillance system in British Columbia (2015 - 2018), using both conventional logistic regression and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The results of GAM were mapped to identify spatial-temporal trends in the risk of fatal overdose. Results: We found that the odds of fatal overdose were about 30% higher in rural areas than in large urban centers, with some regions reporting odds 50% higher than others. Temporal variations in fatal overdose revealed an increasing trend over the entire province. However, the increase occurred earlier and faster in the Interior and Northern regions. Conclusion: Rural areas were disproportionately affected by fatal overdose; lack of access to harm reduction services may partly explain the elevated risk in these areas.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".