Electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave events from Gaia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent discoveries of gravitational wave events and in one case also its electromagnetic (EM) counterpart allow us to study the Universe in a novel way. The increased sensitivity of the LIGO and Virgo detectors has opened the possibility for regular detections of EM transient events from mergers of stellar remnants. Gravitational wave sources are expected to have sky localisation up to a few hundred square degrees, thus Gaia as an all-sky multi-epoch photometric survey has the potential to be a good tool to search for the EM counterparts. In this paper we study the possibility of detecting EM counterparts to gravitational wave sources using the Gaia Science Alerts system. We develop an extension to current used algorithms to find transients and test its capabilities in discovering candidate transients on a sample of events from the observation periods O1 and O2 of LIGO and Virgo. For the gravitational wave events from the current run O3 we expect that about 16 (25) per cent should fall in sky regions observed by Gaia 7 (10) days after gravitational wave. The new algorithm will provide about 21 candidates per day from the whole sky.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".