The Carbon Balance of Arctic River Deltas: Tundra Fire as an Agent of System Change, 2015-2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The summer of 2015 was an extraordinary year for fire in the Arctic, including in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, presaging a future where tundra and boreal fire is far more common. Remarkably, the area burned in the YK Delta in 2015 exceeds the total area burned from 1940-2014 combined. The response of the YK Delta in the first year post-fire will set the stage for longer-term changes in delta carbon storage and transport among tundra, aquatic and marine systems, and to the atmosphere. Quantifying carbon export and understanding the immediate ecosystem response to fire is critical because long-term recovery is, to a considerable degree, dependent on short-term responses. A major question that this research will address is how fire influences the amount and form of carbon transported from delta ecosystems seasonally and in the first year following fire. Ultimately, these results will inform long-term trajectories of the vulnerability and fate of delta carbon pools. This research will significantly improve our understanding of the role of fire in the loss of both modern and ancient carbon from arctic river deltas, which contain >10% of the Arctic’s massive permafrost carbon store. This funding will allow project scientists to engage with Alaska Native faculty and students in STEM-focused teacher training programs at the tribal college in Bethel, which will provide teachers with experience conducting research on climate change and arctic system science and the opportunity to develop curriculum focused on climate change and the feedbacks that result from fire and other changes in ecosystems in the Yukon River Delta. This project will also improve the infrastructure for arctic research and teaching at a small Undergraduate Institution in central Minnesota. Arctic river deltas are hotspots for carbon storage, occupying <1% of the pan-Arctic watershed but containing >10% of carbon stored in arctic permafrost. They are also heterogeneous mosaics of linked terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and are susceptible to changes in land, river, and marine systems. The vulnerability of carbon stored in arctic river deltas is a major unknown and is critically important as climate warming and increasing fire frequency may make this carbon vulnerable to transport to aquatic and marine systems and to the atmosphere. The goal of this proposal is to examine the immediate effects of fire on carbon storage in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and exchange between terrestrial and aquatic components of the Delta. By extension this work will yield critical insights into how the carbon balance of deltas in the arctic system will change over the coming decades as warming continues and fire frequency increases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".