The Role of U.S. Interest Rates in Canadian Interest-Rate Equations: An Exploratory Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study the authors examine in detail the relative importance of U.S. and Canadian interest rates in the determination of three Canadian short-term interest rates: the term-deposit rate, the rate on finance company paper and the prime loan rate. The main technique used is regression analysis on weekly interest-rate data for the period 1963-75. Monthly and quarterly equations are also presented for comparison. A second approach employs principalcomponents analysis to isolate the independent variation of Canadian interest rates that is not explained by movements of U.S. rates. Throughout the study, careful attention is paid to structural changes over the period that have affected the behaviour of Canadian interest rates. In the course of the analysis the authors also examine the determination of the forward premium of the Canadian dollar. The general conclusion is that U.S. interest rates are more important in the determination of the interest rate on Canadian finance company paper than in the determination of the Canadian term-deposit rate, a result that is consistent with the fact that foreigners hold a substantially larger share of Canadian finance paper than of Canadian term deposits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".