Therapeutic Value of Drugs Granted Accelerated Approval or Conditional Marketing Authorization in the US and Europe From 2007 to 2021
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: The number of drugs approved through the accelerated approval or conditional marketing authorization pathways has increased with unclear evidence of their therapeutic value. Objectives: To assess the therapeutic value of drug indications granted accelerated approval in the US or conditional marketing authorization in the European Union (EU) overall and for cancer indications. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the public databases of the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency to identify all drugs (initial and supplemental indications) granted accelerated approval in the US or conditional marketing authorization (initial indications only) in the EU between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2021. Therapeutic value ratings were obtained from national health authorities in Germany, France, and Canada. Main Outcomes and Measures: Descriptive statistics were used to assess the proportion of accelerated approvals and conditional marketing authorizations overall and for cancer vs noncancer indications rated as having high added therapeutic value. Results: The cohort included 146 drug indications (94 first indications, 52 supplemental indications) in the US and 58 (all first indications) in the EU. Most drugs were approved for cancer (122 [83.6%] in the US; 40 [69.0%] in the EU). Therapeutic value ratings were available for 90 drug indications (61.6%) in the US and 56 (96.6%) in the EU. Overall, 35 drug indications granted accelerated approval (38.9%) and 21 granted conditional marketing authorization (37.5%) had high added therapeutic value in the US and EU, respectively, at the time of approval. The proportions of indications rated as having high added therapeutic value were 36.0% (27 of 75) for cancer vs 53.3% (8 of 15) for noncancer indications in the US and 30.8% (12 of 39) for cancer vs 52.9% (9 of 17) for noncancer indications in the EU. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, among new drug indications approved through the accelerated approval or conditional marketing authorization pathways in the US and Europe from 2007 to 2021, 38.9% and 37.5%, respectively, demonstrated high therapeutic value. A substantially lower proportion of cancer indications than noncancer indications were rated as having high therapeutic value. Policy makers and regulators should increase enforcement of timely postapproval study completion for drugs qualifying for these pathways.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.034 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it