Runaway greenhouse effect on exomoons due to irradiation from hot, young giant planets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Kepler space telescope has detected transits of objects as small as the Earth's Moon, and moons as small as 0.2 Earth masses can be detected in the Kepler data by transit timing and transit duration variations of their host planets. Such massive moons around giant planets in the stellar habitable zone (HZ) could serve as habitats for extraterrestrial life. We here assess the danger of exomoons to be in a runaway greenhouse (RG) state due to extensive heating from the planet. We apply pre-computed evolution tracks for giant planets to calculate the incident planetary radiation on the moon as a function of time. The total energy budget of stellar flux, illumination from the planet, and tidal heating in the satellite is compared to the critical flux for the moon to experience an RG effect. Irradiation from a 13-Jupiter-mass planet onto an Earth-sized moon at a distance of ten Jupiter radii can drive an RG state on the moon for about 200 Myr. If stellar illumination equivalent to that received by Earth from the Sun is added, the RG holds for about 500 Myr. After 1000 Myr, the planet's habitable edge has moved inward to about 6 planetary radii. Exomoons in orbits with eccentricities of 0.1 experience strong tidal heating; they must orbit a 13-Jupiter-mass host beyond 29 or 18 Jupiter radii after 100 Myr (at the inner and outer boundaries of the stellar HZ, respectively), and beyond 13 Jupiter radii (in both cases) after 1000 Myr to be habitable. If a roughly Earth-sized moon would be detected in orbit around a giant planet, and if this binary would orbit in the stellar HZ, then it will be crucial to recover the moon's orbital history. If such a moon around a 13-Jupiter-mass planet has been closer than 20 Jupiter radii to its host during the first few hundred million years at least, then it might have lost substantial amounts of its initial water reservoir and be uninhabitable today.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".