Data for Nicola Chinook Ricker stock-recruit model with environmental covariates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change and human activities are transforming river flows globally, with potentially large consequences for freshwater life. To help inform watershed and flow management, there is a need for empirical studies linking flows and fish productivity. We tested the effects of river conditions and other factors on 22 years of Chinook salmon productivity in a watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Freshwater conditions during adult salmon migration and spawning, as well as during juvenile rearing, explained a large amount of variation in productivity. August river flows while salmon fry reared had the strongest effect on productivity – our model predicted that cohorts that experience 50% below average flow in the August of rearing have 21% lower productivity. These contemporary relationships are set within long-term changes in climate, land use, and hydrology. Over the last century, average August river discharge decreased by 26%, air temperatures warmed, and water withdrawals increased. 17% of the watershed was logged in the last 20 years. Our results suggest that, in order to remain stable, this Chinook salmon population being assessed for legal protection requires substantially higher August flow than previously recommended. Changing flow regimes – driven by watershed impacts and climate change – can threaten imperiled fish populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.060 | 0.047 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".