IPCC Climate Change Data: CGCM1 B2a Model: 2080 Mean Temperature

The first version of the Canadian Global Coupled Model, CGCM1, and its control climate are described by Flato et al. (1999). The atmospheric component of the model is essentially GCMII described by McFarlane et al. (1992). It is a spectral model with triangular truncation at wave number 32 (yielding a surface grid resolution of roughly 3.7 degrees x3.7 degrees ) and 10 vertical levels. The ocean component is based on the GFDL MOM1.1 code and has a resolution of approximately 1.8 degrees x1.8 degrees and 29 vertical levels. The model uses heat and water flux adjustments obtained from uncoupled ocean and atmosphere model runs (of 10 years and 4000 years duration respectively), followed by an `adaption' procedure in which the flux adjustment fields are modified by a 14 year integration of the coupled model. A multi-century control simulation with the coupled model has been performed using the present-day CO2 concentration to evaluate the stability of the coupled model's climate, and to compare the modelled climate and its variability to that observed. An ensemble of four transient climate change simulations has been performed and is described in Boer et al. (1999a; b). Three of these simulations use an effective greenhouse gas forcing change corresponding to that observed from 1850 to the present, and a forcing change corresponding to an increase of CO2 at a rate of 1% per year (compounded) thereafter until year 2100. The direct forcing effect of sulphate aerosols is also included by increasing the surface albedo (as in Reader and Boer, 1999) based on loadings from the sulphur cycle model of Langner and Rodhe (1991). The fourth simulation considers the effect of greenhouse gas forcing only. The change in climate predicted by a model clearly depends directly on this specification of greenhouse gas (and aerosol) forcing, and of course these are not well known. The prescription described above is similar to the IPCC "business as usual" scenario, and using a standard scenario allows the results of this model to be compared to those of other modelling groups around the world. Some initial results from these simulations are presented below. The climate sensitivity of CGCM1 is about 3.5 degrees C.From the IPCC website: The B2 world is one of increased concern for environmental and social sustainability. Education and welfare programs are widely pursued leading to reductions in mortality and, to a lesser extent, fertility. The population reaches about 10 billion people by 2100, consistent with both the United Nations and IIASA median projections. Income per capita grows at an intermediary rate to reach about US$12,000 by 2050. By 2100 the global economy might expand to reach some US$250 trillion. International income differences decrease, although not as rapidly as in scenarios of higher global convergence (A1, B1). Local inequity is reduced considerably through the development of stronger community support networks. Generally high educational levels promote both development and environmental protection. Indeed, environmental protection is one of the few remaining truly international priorities. However, strategies to address global environmental challenges are less successful than in B1, as governments have difficulty designing and implementing agreements that combine environmental protection with mutual economic benefits. The B2 storyline presents a particularly favorable climate for community initiative and social innovation, especially in view of high educational levels. Technological frontiers are pushed less than in A1 and B1 and innovations are also regionally more heterogeneous. Globally, investment in R& continues its current declining trend, and mechanisms for international diffusion of technology and know-how remain weaker than in scenarios A1 and B1 (but higher than in scenario A2). Some regions with rapid economic development and limited natural resources place particular emphasis on technology development and bilateral co-operation. Technical change is therefore uneven. The energy intensity of GDP declines at about one percent per year, in line with the average historical experience of the last two centuries. Land-use management becomes better integrated at the local level in the B2 world. Urban and transport infrastructure is a particular focus of community innovation, contributing to a low level of car dependence and less urban sprawl. An emphasis on food self-reliance contributes to a shift in dietary patterns towards local products, with reduced meat consumption in countries with high population densities. Energy systems differ from region to region, depending on the availability of natural resources. The need to use energy and other resources more efficiently spurs the development of less carbon-intensive technology in some regions. Environment policy cooperation at the regional level leads to success in the management of some transboundary environmental problems, such as acidification due to SO2, especially to sustain regional self-reliance in agricultural production. Regional cooperation also results in lower emissions of NOx and VOCs, reducing the incidence of elevated tropospheric ozone levels. Although globally the energy system remains predominantly hydrocarbon-based to 2100, there is a gradual transition away from the current share of fossil resources in world energy supply, with a corresponding reduction in carbon intensity. Data are available for the following periods: 1961-1990, 2010-2039; 2040-2069; and 2090-2099 Mean monthly and change fields.

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