Spring climate warming is associated with earlier spawn timing of an adfluvial trout population
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phenological shifts are being observed in salmonid fish in response to climate change. Between 1961 and 2021, daily spawner counts have taken place during the spawning season, and climate and hydrologic measurements have been measured continuously near the spawning site for Gerrard Rainbow Trout in British Columbia, Canada. Trend and multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine phenological shifts and associated climate and hydrology metrics. Over the 61-year time series, the timing of peak spawning shifted earlier by 7.7 days and the duration of the spawning period shortened by 12.3 days due to the spawning season ending earlier; the timing of the start of the spawning season did not change. The shift in peak spawn timing was associated most strongly with an increase in early spring (March-April) air temperature (2.2 °C), an increase in water temperature (1.3 °C), and less strongly with hydrology metrics. Mountainous regions are experiencing earlier and warmer springs. Adfluvial trout populations in these regions such as Gerrard Rainbow Trout may be remaining resilient at least partially through adaptation of phenology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".