Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Cape Breton Highlands National Park of Canada under differing levels of warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cape Breton Highlands National Park is among the top 33% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. All areas of the park will require additional adaptation efforts as warming levels exceed 2.0°C. Averaged over the entire area of this park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 61.3% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 49.5% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 78.8% of its terrestrial biodiversity. Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.2° - 1.2°C (December). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature for all months would be equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990, with June-October having new average temperatures equivalent to that experienced 1 in 20 years. Nine months have seen decreases in precipitation with the rest seeing increases. Models project that all months will become wetter. The number of months classified as being in severe drought have more than tripled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Under the climate change scenarios examined, the number of months in severe drought are projected to decline then increase with additional warming. Business-as-usual conservation, taking into account extreme events, will only be adequate to 2° - 3°C warming. As warming levels exceed 2°C additional adaptation actions will be needed. While some taxa (e.g., birds, mammals) show resilience, the loss of habitat and insects will have indirect impacts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".