A decade of arbovirus emergence in the temperate southern cone of South America: dengue, Aedes aegypti and climate dynamics in Córdoba, Argentina
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Argentina is located at the southern temperate range of arboviral transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti and has experienced a rapid increase in disease transmission in recent years. Here we present findings from an entomological surveillance study that began in Córdoba, Argentina, following the emergence of dengue in 2009. Methods From 2009 to 2017, larval surveys were conducted monthly, from November to May, in 600 randomly selected households distributed across the city. From 2009 to 2013, ovitraps (n=177) were sampled weekly to monitor the oviposition activity of Ae. aegypti . We explored seasonal and interannual dynamics of entomological variables and dengue transmission. Cross correlation analysis was used to identify significant lag periods. Results Aedes aegypti were detected over the entire study period, and abundance peaked during the summer months (January to March). We identified a considerable increase in the proportion of homes with juvenile Ae. aegypti over the study period (from 5.7% of homes in 2009-10 to 15.4% of homes in 2016-17). Aedes aegypti eggs per ovitrap and larval abundance were positively associated with temperature in the same month. Autochthonous dengue transmission peaked in April, following a peak in imported dengue cases in March; autochthonous dengue was not positively associated with vector or climate variables. Conclusions This longitudinal study provides insights into the complex dynamics of arbovirus transmission and vector populations in a temperate region of arbovirus emergence. Our findings suggest that Córdoba is well suited for arbovirus disease transmission, given the stable and abundant vector populations. Further studies are needed to better understand the role of regional human movement. Author summary There is an increasing risk of arbovirus transmission in temperate regions. Argentina is located at the southern range of dengue virus transmission by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. In the last decade, epidemics of dengue fever have emerged for the first time in the city of Córdoba, Argentina. We present the study design and findings from an entomological surveillance study in Córdoba, which began following the emergence of dengue in 2009. We found that Ae. aegypti were most abundant from January to March, followed by a peak in local dengue transmission in April. Over the study period, we noted a considerable increase in the proportion of homes with Ae. aegypti . Vector indices were positively associated with warmer temperatures, which have been increasing in this region. However, the timing of local dengue transmission appears to be driven by the appearance of imported dengue cases associated with human movement. These results highlight the important role of long term surveillance studies in areas of disease emergence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".