Gene-expression patterns in peripheral blood classify familial breast cancer susceptibility
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Women with a family history of breast cancer face considerable uncertainty about whether to pursue standard screening, intensive screening, or prophylactic surgery. Accurate and individualized risk-estimation approaches may help these women make more informed decisions. Although highly penetrant genetic variants have been associated with familial breast cancer (FBC) risk, many individuals do not carry these variants, and many carriers never develop breast cancer. Common risk variants have a relatively modest effect on risk and show limited potential for predicting FBC development. As an alternative, we hypothesized that additional genomic data types, such as gene-expression levels, which can reflect genetic and epigenetic variation, could contribute to classifying a person’s risk status. Specifically, we aimed to identify common patterns in gene-expression levels across individuals who develop FBC. Methods We profiled peripheral blood mononuclear cells from women with a family history of breast cancer (with or without a germline BRCA1/2 variant) and from controls. We used the support vector machines algorithm to differentiate between patients who developed FBC and those who did not. Our study used two independent datasets, a training set of 124 women from Utah (USA) and an external validation (test) set from Ontario (Canada) of 73 women (197 total). We controlled for expression variation associated with clinical, demographic, and treatment variables as well as lymphocyte markers. Results Our multigene biomarker provided accurate, individual-level estimates of FBC occurrence for the Utah cohort (AUC = 0.76 [0.67-84]) . Even at their lower confidence bounds, these accuracy estimates meet or exceed estimates from alternative approaches. Our Ontario cohort resulted in similarly high levels of accuracy (AUC = 0.73 [0.59-0.86]), thus providing external validation of our findings. Individuals deemed to have “high” risk by our model would have an estimated 2.4 times greater odds of developing familial breast cancer than individuals deemed to have “low” risk. Conclusions Together, these findings suggest that gene-expression levels in peripheral blood cells reflect genomic variation associated with breast cancer risk and that such data have potential to be used as a non-invasive biomarker for familial breast cancer risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".