Sea ice change in the Tarium Niryutait Marine Protected Area 1980-2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dramatic changes in sea ice have been well-documented across the Arctic, yet our understanding of sea ice decline at smaller scales remains limited. This is particularly relevant in areas of cultural and ecological significance to coastal Indigenous communities, such as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), which require site-specific data to prepare for and mitigate change. A small-scale application was used to assess sea ice change from weekly sea ice charts generated from the Tarium Niryutait Marine Protected Area (TNMPA) between 1980 and 2022. Over this 43-year period, sea ice coverage decreased and open water increased by 17 days when comparing the median number of open water days by decade, indicating that the TNMPA is now experiencing earlier break-ups and later freeze-ups. The rate of change also varied across the three areas of the MPA, with the Kittigaryuit area experiencing more open water days (19) than the Okeevik (16 days) or Niaqunnaq (13 days) areas. This high rate of change highlights the need to better understand the impacts of sea ice decline in ecologically and culturally important areas and enhance community-scale approaches to monitoring environmental change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".