The long multiphase trunk–tributary surge history of the high-Arctic Chapman Glacier, 1959–2023
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Surge-type glaciers have been identified throughout the Canadian Arctic, but detailed surge behavior has been sparsely studied. Recent high spatiotemporal resolution satellite products enable such studies, allowing for better process-based understanding of surging in this region. Here, we present a multidecadal record (1999–2023) of flow velocities, strain rates, and elevation changes for Chapman Glacier, a 40-km-long land-terminating glacier on Umingmak Nuna (Ellesmere Island), using ITS_LIVE (Inter-mission Time Series of Land Ice Velocity and Elevation), Sentinel-1, and elevation time series data products. We further use historical remote sensing data to analyze surface morphology and displacement from 1959 to 2023. After an inferred century-long or longer quiescent phase, Chapman Glacier surged for at least twenty-two years in two successive phases. Phase 1 occurred from 2001 to 2012 and was spatially limited to the trunk, and Phase 2 started around 2012 and continues to 2024, impacting the main tributary and the lower part of the trunk. In each surge phase flow speeds increased from ~25 to >200 m a−1 over approximately ten years, propagated from up-glacier to down-glacier, and involved notable mass displacements. Our record of this high-Arctic surge and first account of a tributary–trunk surge in the Canadian Arctic contributes to the characterization of the spectrum of dynamic ice flow instabilities worldwide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".