Bone marrow lesions predict site-specific cartilage defect development and volume loss: a prospective study in older adults
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Introduction Recent evidence suggests that bone marrow lesions (BMLs) play a pivotal role in knee osteoarthritis (OA). The aims of this study were to determine: 1) whether baseline BML presence and/or severity predict site-specific cartilage defect progression and cartilage volume loss; and 2) whether baseline cartilage defects predict site-specific BML progression. Methods A total of 405 subjects (mean age 63 years, range 52 to 79) were measured at baseline and approximately 2.7 years later. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the right knee was performed to measure knee cartilage volume, cartilage defects (0 to 4), and BMLs (0 to 3) at the medial tibial (MT), medial femoral (MF), lateral tibial (LT), and lateral femoral (LF) sites. Logistic regression and generalized estimating equations were used to examine the relationship between BMLs and cartilage defects and cartilage volume loss. Results At all four sites, baseline BML presence predicted defect progression (odds ratio (OR) 2.4 to 6.4, all P < 0.05), and cartilage volume loss (-0.9 to -2.9% difference per annum, all P < 0.05) at the same site. In multivariable analysis, there was a significant relationship between BML severity and defect progression at all four sites (OR 1.8 to 3.2, all P < 0.05) and BML severity and cartilage volume loss at the MF, LT, and LF sites (β -22.1 to -42.0, all P < 0.05). Additionally, baseline defect severity predicted BML progression at the MT and LF sites (OR 3.3 to 3.7, all P < 0.01). Lastly, there was a greater increase in cartilage volume loss at the MT and LT sites when both larger defects and BMLs were present at baseline (all P < 0.05). Conclusions Baseline BMLs predicted site-specific defect progression and cartilage volume loss in a dose-response manner suggesting BMLs may have a local effect on cartilage homeostasis. Baseline defects predicted site-specific BML progression, which may represent increased bone loading adjacent to defects. These results suggest BMLs and defects are interconnected and play key roles in knee cartilage volume loss; thus, both should be considered targets for intervention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.459 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".