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Record W6977756599 · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.28485792

Improving multi-model ensemble streamflow forecasts by combining lumped, distributed and deep learning hydrological models

2025· article· en· W6977756599 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueFigshare · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicHydrological Forecasting Using AI
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsStreamflowArtificial neural networkDeep learningHydrological modellingFlood forecastingStream flowEnsemble forecasting

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Deep learning (DL) has recently shown promise for hydrological applications. This study investigates the accuracy of a hybrid multi-model neural network approach for streamflow forecasting, using nine conceptual hydrological models (eight lumped, one semi-distributed) and one DL model. It aims to evaluate whether the long short-term memory (LSTM) DL model within the multi-model framework improves short-term streamflow forecasts over a Canadian catchment. By integrating traditional hydrological models with the LSTM, the study addresses operational challenges and enhances forecast skill, especially for early lead times (up to 9 days). Results indicate that the combination of LSTM with other models leads to better performance, suggesting that DL achieves optimal results when paired with different modelling approaches. LSTM models appear to be promising predictive tools for hydrological forecasting when integrated within a hybrid multi-model framework, facilitating gradual adoption in operational settings.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.110
Threshold uncertainty score0.993

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0080.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.029
GPT teacher head0.243
Teacher spread0.213 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it