Energy trends for Europe in a global perspective. Baseline projections by twelve E3-models in the CASCADE MINTS project:
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the coming decades, Europe's energy system is facing a number of challenges.Some of these, such as the enhanced greenhouse effect and depletion of fossil fuel resources have a worldwide dimension.Consequently, the strategies for tackling these issues must be designed taking worldwide developments into account.Alternative energy sources and new technologies will have to play a key role.In the analysis of the potential impact of new technologies and the evaluation of possible policy options, energy -economy -environment (E3) models can provide useful insights.In the CASCADE MINTS project, these E3 models have been used to evaluate possible developments of the world energy system and the implications for Europe.The objectives of this report are first to document the baseline assumptions and results in the project as a basis for analysis of policy cases.Secondly the report aims at providing information to policy makers, based on a scientific consensus among modellers, on possible developments in a world with moderate GDP and population growth, with no additional policies in place.The variety of technological and other assumptions in the different models causes a range in the results that reflects the uncertainty inherent to any projection of future developments.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it