The Impact of United States Anti-dumping duties on 3rd Country U.S. Trading Partners
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Anti-dumping duties are a form of discriminatory trade barrier that can divert trade from an intended destination country to some other 3rd country.This paper examines the effect of these duties imposed by the United States on Chinese products on increases in the exports of those products from China to other United States trading partners.Utilizing Chinese export panel data and selecting the European Union, Canada, and Japan as 3rd country trading partners, I estimate that, over time before and after an anti-dumping duty is imposed, 6-digit level harmonized system exports from China into these 3rd countries that face some anti-dumping duties imposed by the United States on China at the 8-digit level are predicted to increase 156 percentage points more than similar, and unaffected, 6-digit products.These findings indicate that U.S. anti-dumping duties imposed on China impact and possibly damage other major U.S. trade partners through the process of export trade diversion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".