Life expectancy and business cycles in a small open economy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of increased life expectancy on the short-run macroeconomic stability of a typical small open economy. We develop a real-business-cycle (RBC) model of a small open economy that is consistent with the main empirical facts of economic fluctuations in open economies. Different from the previous satisfactory open-economy extensions of the baseline RBC model, given its finite lifetimes feature, our framework also helps rationalize some of the key results from recent empirical literature on the relationship between longevity and business cycles. In our model, changes in life expectancy change the planning horizon of individuals and thus affect their intertemporal choices. Consequently, the cyclical volatilities of aggregate variables are also affected. As a numerical exercise, we quantify how increased life expectancy has impacted Canadian business cycle fluctuations over the past forty years. The results indicate that the fluctuations in physical capital, human capital, and consumption all decrease as life expectancy increases. On the other hand, the fluctuation of hours worked, output, and trade balance ratio are found to increase with life expectancy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".