Using genetic analyses to infer mountain pine beetle population structure and dispersal patterns in British Columbia and Alberta.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The mountain pine beetle (MPB) is an eruptive insect that is currently causing an outbreak of record size in western Canada. The longstanding lack of long-distance MPB dispersal data has limited our understanding and management of MPB outbreaks. Our goal was to characterize the genetic structure of western Canadian MPB populations, from which dispersal patterns may be inferred. We analyzed 35 MPB stands in British Columbia and Alberta at six microsatellite loci. The MPB exhibited strong and significant population structure. This structure was partitioned into a Northern and Southern group. The genetic structure and observed patterns of diversity are consistent with the notion of post-glacial recolonization and climate-driven differences in MPB population dynamics. Using our genetic data, we inferred the historical movement patterns of the MPB in western Canada. We found no evidence that the infestation spread from an epicentre in Tweedsmuir Provincial Park. Our data support multiple sources for the current outbreak. Management recommendations are included.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".