Data-Driven Causal Decision Support for Business Process Management
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Control-flow and resource assignment decisions influence business processes. Recorded process data can be used to identify which decisions are informed by data to predict their outcome, and to guide interventions as part of a what-if analysis. The latter requires causal models that explain decisions. Yet, existing methods are limited: they focus on control-flow decisions only, ignore potential confounders, and use ad-hoc methods to resolve causal conflicts. We fill this gap, by introducing a causal decision modeling framework which uncovers confounding effects, and captures resource decisions. Moreover, we provide a process-aware causal discovery algorithm that takes process precedence into account. In addition, we employ domain knowledge to include unobserved factors. We address the problem of identification, conduct interventional outcome prediction and improve decision-making by acquiring unavailable data to maximize the utility of interventions. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach through a set of experiments on synthetically generated and real-world datasets.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.061 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".