The development and flexibility of timing to environmental variability in a migratory songbird
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As spring phenology advances with climate change it may create a mismatch between the timing of critical resources and breeding, leading to population declines in some migratory species. To investigate whether long-distance migrants can adjust to their changing environment, I studied the flexibility within two parts of the annual cycle in the eastern subspecies of purple martin (Progne subis subis). First, I examined whether the period between the spring arrival date to the first egg-lay date, termed the ‘arrival-breeding interval’, was flexible to local environmental conditions or constrained by carry-over effects from migration. Direct tracking technologies paired with nest checks at breeding colonies across eastern North America were used to accomplish this first objective. Second, the period from hatch to fall departure was used to explore the influence of ontogenetic effects on the development of migration timing in juvenile birds. The second objective required an experimental manipulation of hatch date at wild purple martin colonies in southern Manitoba to delay the daylength, or photoperiod, experienced by the juveniles while in the nest. I found the arrival-breeding interval to be flexible to local environmental conditions at breeding sites, where shorter intervals were associated with higher temperatures while precipitation had a variable influence depending upon the geographic region. I found no evidence of carry-over effects on the duration of the interval and the interval did not influence fledging success. For my second objective, I found some support for the role of the ontogenetic effect on the development of migration timing in juveniles. Juveniles with experimentally delayed hatch dates did not advance their timing and migrated at a later date than controls. To conclude, my results demonstrate flexibility in timing to environmental conditions, where purple martins lay eggs earlier in warmer springs and that early-hatching juveniles may develop early migration schedules that may enable them to keep up with their changing environment. Future studies are needed to understand if longer arrival-breeding intervals are associated with more flexibility than shorter intervals and if the ontogenetic effects on timing in the nest set migratory timing around the annual cycle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".