Melting Ice Caps: Implications for Asia-North America Linkages and the Panama Canal
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Arctic ice caps have been melting at an increased pace and projected climate changes imply that the extension of the Arctic ice caps will be greatly reduced in the near future. This climatic phenomenon will open up shipping routes in the Arctic. Until now, media and academic attention has centered on the use of the Northern Sea Route that will connect Northeast Asia with Northwestern Europe and affect the traffic through the Suez Canal (cf. Francois and Rojas-Romagosa, 2015). However, melting Arctic ice caps will also make the North West Route (NWR) a feasible trade route for high volume commercial traffic. This route will reduce the shipping distances between Northeast Asia with the East Coast of the United States and Canada. In this paper we analyze the commercial feasibility of the NWR and the economic impact of reducing the trade distances between Asia and the United States. In particular, we expect that the NWR will become a direct competitor with the Panama Canal for certain trade routes and this will have significant geopolitical implications linked to both a drop in traffic through the Panama Canal as well as changes in the global supply chains that currently link East Asia and the United States.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".