Net zero pathways: building the geothermal energy sector in Northern Ireland
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding how the subsurface of Planet Earth works has been a long passionate interest and pursuit of the geologist community. Harnessing this interest and building upon the well established geoscience knowledge base can unlock opportunities to make available geothermal heating and cooling resources that remain dormant in Northern Ireland (NI).<br/><br/>Geothermal energy integration provides a low-carbon alternative to current fossil fuel dominated energy sources. Building this sector will help contribute towards commitments to the net zero target and transition Northern Ireland towards a just energy future. This report focuses on the confidence-building actions needed to build the geothermal sector in NI. The report has consulted widely and therefore reflects the experiences of those leading out on, or working with, geothermal projects.<br/><br/>Despite over forty years of geological evidence gathering; including well operations, subsurface data analysis and detailed geoscience report generation confirming favourable geological conditions for geothermal activity in Northern Ireland, along with over two decades of political discussion, the findings of this report show an absence of awareness and indeed visibility – showcasing – of the geothermal project activity on the ground.<br/><br/>We believe that the invisibility of geothermal technology in use is emblematic of its ‘Cinderella stepchild status’ amongst other low and zero carbon (LZC) technology solutions. The recent Climate Act legislation that mandates net zero greenhouse gas emissions by2050 in NI is therefore a critical pivoting transition pathway for bringing about a levelling up of the institutional conditions for geothermal activity and other LZC technologies more generally. Not least it is an opportunity for policy-led geothermal market-making.<br/><br/>For both the journey to net zero by 2050 and growth of the geothermal market sector in NI to be a success, the challenge is as much a market behavioural breakthrough activity as it is a technological breakthrough activity. In markets further afield, geothermal technologies are a proven part of the LZC energy portfolio and solution mix. Therefore, the policy challenge is one of building confidence, shifting attitudes and establishing the link between its potential and the actual working of geothermal projects on the ground. It requires a portfolio-driven policy approach of the energy market.<br/><br/>The geothermal sector in NI is presently in an early development niche phase. This report, therefore, invites the geothermal shaper community to build a niche strategy, while putting in place the market scaffolding and also showcasing geothermal buildability. Creating the geothermal transition must be accessible, fair and without adverse effects on peoples’ jobs and quality of life. This report, moreover, invites the geothermal shaper community to engage in upstream nudging activity as well as downstream showcasing of heat decarbonisation in the day-to-day lives of the people and experiences of communities across NI.<br/><br/>This research suggests that there is a need for mutualised financial support ranging from feasibility consultation, planning and exploration to drilling, a programme of operations, research & development (R&D) activity, along with establishing capacity institutional support arrangements, data capture governance processes, and digital infrastructure, commensurate with sector building activity. This report puts forward several considerations for building the market scaffolding and outlines a holistic perspective for showcasing flagship geothermal projects.<br/><br/>
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".