Recurrent event studies: efficient panel designs and joint modeling of events and severities
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recently there has been tremendous growth in the use and interest of longitudinal data, particularly because of the development of large scale investigations which are conducted to study different aspects of the dynamics of a population over time (for instance, the Canadian National Longitudinal Study of Children and Youth (Statistics Canada, 1996)). Recurrent event data are a type of longitudinal data which occur in many fields. Such data arise when an event repeats over time, and are common especially in medicine and reliability. Sometimes, in addition to the occurrence of the event, there is also information which reflects the severity of the event; this is called a mark. In this thesis, we develop efficient designs for longitudinal recurrent event studies, and we also develop methods to model recurrent events with marks. In longitudinal recurrent event studies, sometimes partial information on the counting process, such as the number of events occurring in specific intervals, called panel data, provides nearly the same precision for estimation of treatment effects as full information based on data from continuous observation of the process. We compare the efficiency of the analysis of such panel data with respect to the analysis of data recorded as times of recurrences, and we articulate conditions for efficient panel designs where the focus is on estimation of a treatment effect when adjusting for other covariates. We model the recurrent intensity through the common proportional intensity framework, with the treatment effect modeled flexibly as piecewise constant over panels, or groups of panels. We provide some important considerations for the design of efficient panel studies. The thesis also develops methods for situations where marks, denoting a measure of prognostic factors or severity of the event, are also recorded. Often, there is an association between the recurring processes of events and their marks. We model these outcomes jointly through the use of shared or linking random effects, and investigate biases resulting in analyses of the outcomes when they are not modeled jointly. This analysis of joint outcomes is motivated by a study of healthy menstruating women prior to hysterectomy/ovariectomy for benign disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".