Sample Average Approximation for Conditional Stochastic Optimization with Dependent Data
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Conditional Stochastic Optimization (CSO) is a powerful modelling paradigm for optimization under uncertainty. The existing literature on CSO is mainly based on the independence assumption of data, which shows that the solution of CSO is asymptotically consistent and enjoys a finite sample guarantee. The independence assumption, however, does not typically hold in many important applications with dependence patterns, such as time series analysis, operational control, and reinforcement learning. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap and consider a Sample Average Approximation (SAA) for CSO with dependent data. Leveraging covariance inequalities and independent block sampling technique, we provide theoretical guarantees of SAA for CSO with dependent data. In particular, we show that SAA for CSO retains asymptotic consistency and a finite sample guarantee under mild conditions. In addition, we establish the sample complexity $O(d / \varepsilon^4)$ of SAA for CSO, which is shown to be of the same order as independent cases. Through experiments on several applications, we verify the theoretical results and demonstrate that dependence does not degrade the performance of the SAA approach in real data applications.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it