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Record W6996242229

A Reward-Earning Quaternary Random Walk on a Parity Dial

2021· article· en· W6996242229 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueIUScholarWorks (Indiana University) · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPsychology
TopicMental Health Treatment and Access
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRandom walkCoin flippingNode (physics)Quarter (Canadian coin)Parity (physics)Clockwise
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

A casino offers a game which involves a symmetric quaternary random walk on a parity
\ndial with twelve nodes labeled as (1, 11, 3, 9, 5, 7, 6, 8, 4, 10, 2, 0), reading clockwise. A player
\nbegins at Node 0; she tosses a copper coin to decide whether to move clockwise (if heads)
\nor counterclockwise (if tails); simultaneously she tosses a silver coin to decide whether she
\nwill move one step (if tails) or two steps (if heads) in the direction determined by the copper
\ncoin. Whenever she lands at a new node she is said to have ‘captured’ it. If a player
\nintends to capture c nodes and she wishes to toss the coins k times, then her admission fee
\nis (25 + 25c + k) cents (one quarter to play, one quarter per node to capture and one penny
\nper toss). The game ends as soon as either c nodes (other than Node 0) are captured or k
\ntosses are over, whichever event happens earlier; and the player earns as many nickels as the
\nsum of the labels of the captured nodes. How should the player determine c and k?
\nThe player’s optimal choices can be derived from the theory of stochastic processes.
\nAlternatively, optimal choices can be anticipated through a computer simulation. Lessons
\nlearned from the game empower entrepreneurs and consumers behave optimally to determine
\nwhen and how to intervene to benefit from an opportunity and/or to prevent a catastrophe.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.415
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.025
GPT teacher head0.293
Teacher spread0.268 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it