The 'South Sea' and ASEAN: Failing Unity Amidst Beijing's Duplicitous Diplomacy
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has sought to address the challenges of the disputes in the South China Sea for close to a quarter of a century. This paper examines the circumstances and extent to which ASEAN has been effective in its response to the South China Sea dispute as well as the manner and means by which Beijing’s approach to the dispute has been influenced at the regional level. For this purpose, the chapter examines why early ASEAN unity over the issue was eventually undermined, the impact of China’s political and economic rise, and the associated rise in the level of strategic competition and aggression over various territories across the sub-region. Because of these three developments, it is argued that individual members have abandoned their faith in the good officers of the Association and instead sought self-help measures such as international arbitration. These actions were, in turn, negatively affecting Beijing’s interests but, as demonstrated by the chapter, China gained a last-minute reprieve through the election of President Duterte followed by President Trump.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it