Assessing and Reconstructing Community-Scale Weather Variability at Okanese First Nation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Time series analysis of weather elements (ie, air temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, pressure, and rainfall) are used as indicators of Earth’s changing climate. However, the variability amongst these elements are often underrepresented at a community scale. The purpose of this study was to reconstruct an air temperature record at Okanese First Nation, Saskatchewan, Canada. To achieve this purpose, three objectives were identified. The first objective was to visualize and assess the spatial variation of weather elements in Okanese First Nation. The second objective was to determine which spatial interpolation technique performed best at estimating air temperature with the community-scale established. The final objective was to quantify a baseline historic air temperature record at Okanese First Nation. An analysis of weather data from four meteorological stations within the community was used to determine how the weather elements varied in time and space. With this analysis it was possible to determine the total number of stations that were warranted within the community. Knowing how the weather elements were behaving in the community allowed for the start of the second objective. Three different spatial interpolation techniques were tested – inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and universal kriging - to determine which estimated air temperature best within the community. Model values were computed for each technique and directly compared to observed values from the stations established within Okanese First Nation. Through testing, it was determined that IDW was the most suitable technique to use to reconstruct the historic air temperature. For the third objective, data was collected from Environment and Climate Change Canada for a 72-year period (1950-2021). Weather records from ECCC were used to spatially interpolate using IDW the air temperature within Okanese First Nation throughout the past. With this result, warming across every season and an annual average warming was noted. The results are significant as they help the community quantify environmental change in their community in support of their own observations. The community will be able to use this data to help further their Climate Change Adaptation Strategy with hopes of mitigating or adapting to the impacts from climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".