The Best Way to Instil Confidence is by Being Right An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Case-Based Explanations in providing User Confidence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Instilling confidence in the abilities of machine learning systems in end-users is seen as critical to their success in real world problems. One way in which this can be achieved is by providing users with \ninterpretable explanations of the system's predictions. CBR systems have \nlong been understood to have an inherent transparency that has particular advantages for explanations compared with other machine learning \ntechniques. However simply suppling the most similar case is often not \nenough. In this paper we present a framework for providing interpretable \nexplanations of CBR systems which includes dynamically created discursive texts explaining the feature-value relationships and a measure of \nconfidence of the CBR systems prediction being correct. We also present \nthe results of a preliminary user evaluation we have carried out on the \nframework.It is clear from this evaluation that being right is important. \nIt appears that caveats and notes of caution when the system is uncertain \ndamage user confidence.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.041 | 0.206 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.010 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".